Rebuilding after a wildfire is never a simple process. It requires a balance between speed and resilience, political will and community buy-in, and economic resources and long-term sustainability. As Los Angeles begins to assess the damage from the recent wildfires that tore through Pacific Palisades—destroying over 11,500 homes—lessons from past disasters can offer a clearer picture of what recovery may look like.
While no two wildfires are identical, patterns emerge in how communities rebuild. A recent report by the Urban Institute analyzed the recovery trajectories of major past fires, including the 2018 Camp and Carr Fires in Northern California, the 2021 Marshall Fire in Colorado, and the 2023 Maui wildfires. The data reveals stark contrasts in recovery speeds, rates of rebuilding, and the difficult decisions homeowners must make in the aftermath of destruction.
Rebuilding Timelines: A Look at Past Disasters
Recovering from a wildfire typically unfolds in three key stages: debris cleanup, permitting, and occupancy. The speed at which communities move through these stages depends on local policies, government response, and economic realities.
The 2018 Camp Fire, which nearly wiped out the town of Paradise, California, saw an initial push for cleanup, with most debris cleared within a year. However, six years later, only 29% of the 14,000 destroyed homes have received permits, and even fewer have been rebuilt and reoccupied. Similarly, the 2018 Carr Fire in Shasta County, which destroyed 836 homes, has seen 40% of properties permitted and 36% fully rebuilt as of early 2024.
In contrast, the Marshall Fire in Colorado has demonstrated a much faster recovery. Just three years after the fire, 75% of destroyed homes had received permits and 63% were fully rebuilt. The difference? A combination of efficient permitting, proactive local governance, and access to a strong housing market that provided temporary shelter for displaced residents.
Meanwhile, the 2023 Maui wildfires, which devastated 2,000 homes, are still in the early stages of recovery. Eighteen months after the fires, 82% of debris has been cleared, 14% of properties have received permits, and only six homes have been rebuilt—a slower pace than other fires, in part due to permitting delays.
For comparison, at the 18-month mark:
- The Camp Fire had issued permits for 7% of destroyed homes
- The Carr Fire had issued permits for 22%
- The Marshall Fire had issued permits for over 50%, despite a slower cleanup process
Why Some Communities Recover Faster Than Others
The factors that contribute to a community’s ability to rebuild quickly include governance, local economic conditions, and the willingness of residents to return. In Boulder County, where the Marshall Fire struck, officials implemented streamlined permitting and active communication with homeowners to accelerate recovery. The presence of a strong housing market also helped survivors stay close while rebuilding.
But rebuilding isn’t just about getting permits approved—it’s about whether people want to return. Past fires have shown that older homeowners, in particular, are more likely to relocate than rebuild.
For instance, the 2017 Tubbs Fire in Santa Rosa saw 28% of affected households move to a different census tract within two years. Many of those who left were older residents who had already been planning to move and used insurance payouts or land sales to relocate earlier than expected.
A similar trend played out in Ventura after the 2017 Thomas Fire. While the city’s dense downtown had an influx of new multifamily housing that temporarily housed displaced residents, many ultimately chose not to rebuild. Of the 530 homes lost, about 300 homeowners sold their land and moved elsewhere—a pattern that could repeat in Los Angeles.
Will Pacific Palisades Homeowners Rebuild?
The fires in Pacific Palisades share characteristics with past disasters, particularly Ventura and Santa Rosa. High-profile homeowners, including celebrities like Mel Gibson, Billy Crystal, Paris Hilton, and Anthony Hopkins, can afford high-end temporary housing and may not have the patience for a multi-year rebuilding process.
In the immediate aftermath of the fire, demand for rental housing in Los Angeles skyrocketed. A local real estate agent reported receiving 1,000 applications for a single rental listing within days of the fire—underscoring the pressure on the housing market.
If the patterns seen in past wildfires hold true, many older residents may take their insurance money and move rather than wait years for rebuilding. However, for working-class families in the area, leaving may not be an option. As seen in Paradise after the Camp Fire, those who couldn’t afford to relocate stayed, often struggling with financial instability in the process.
The Political Challenges of Rebuilding
One of the most complex aspects of wildfire recovery is zoning and policy reform. While cities could use rebuilding as an opportunity to mitigate future wildfire risk, past disasters show that local politics often get in the way.
According to Andrew Rumbach, a researcher at the Urban Institute, “Disaster recovery is political, not technical.” He notes that elected officials often avoid imposing rebuilding restrictions because they fear voter backlash.
A cautionary tale comes from Santa Rosa. After the Tubbs Fire, many homeowners rebuilt in the exact same fire-prone locations, missing a critical opportunity for fire-resistant urban planning. Experts argue that cities should implement stronger building codes before disasters strike—rather than trying to enforce them afterward.
How Los Angeles Plans to Move Forward
In contrast to the drawn-out recoveries of some past wildfires, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass and California Governor Gavin Newsom have prioritized a fast-track rebuilding approach.
- Bass issued an executive order forming a task force to accelerate building approvals, ensuring that all relevant agencies—from city to federal level—are involved in the process.
- Newsom waived environmental and preservation requirements to streamline construction.
- A key requirement states that rebuilt homes cannot exceed 110% of their original size, but it does not mandate defensible space around properties—potentially missing a chance to reduce future wildfire risks.
While this approach is meant to quickly restore tax revenue and keep the economy moving, it also raises concerns about whether the city is prioritizing speed over long-term sustainability.
A Warning from Paradise
Although Paradise is a vastly different community from Los Angeles—with lower median home values and a high percentage of mobile homes—it provides a grim reminder of what can happen if a city is unprepared.
Before the Camp Fire, Paradise had 27,000 residents, a median home value of just $218,400, and 17% of its housing stock was mobile homes. After the fire, more than 13,000 households were permanently displaced, with many moving to nearby Chico. Today, the town’s population remains less than half of what it was before the fire.
For some low-income residents in Los Angeles, a similar reality could unfold. Those who can’t afford to relocate may be forced to stay in precarious living situations, waiting years for reconstruction that may never come.
The Path Ahead
The rebuilding process in Los Angeles is just beginning, and its trajectory will depend on a mix of policy decisions, economic incentives, and homeowner preferences.
While fast-tracking permits will help stabilize the housing market, city officials must also consider long-term fire mitigation strategies, infrastructure resilience, and support for residents who cannot afford to relocate.
If past disasters have taught us anything, it’s that rebuilding is never just about replacing what was lost—it’s about making communities safer and more resilient for the future. Whether Los Angeles will seize this opportunity remains to be seen.
